Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0114Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (28 Jun) and likely to be
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29
Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
27/2034Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 05/10/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 104
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 110/120/130
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 012/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 20/20/05