Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0814Z from Region 1778 (S17E11). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 27/1556Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2046Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/2033Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17632 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30
Jun).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 100
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 014/017-008/009-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/05
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/20/05