Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 26/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3945 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 067
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20