- Status Report
- Feb 8, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 July 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 26/2314Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16547 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 068
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 068/068/072
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 007/007-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10