Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 July 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
July 27, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 26/2314Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16547 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 068
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 068/068/072
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  015/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  007/007-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.