Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at 27/0656Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/0233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 820 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Jul, 30 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 100
Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 27 Jul 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 009/010-013/016-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/15
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 25/55/05