Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/1226Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 26/2237Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1754Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 379 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 107
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 006/005-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/40/25