Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1726 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 074
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15