Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 26/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 348 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 069
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  006/005-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/25