Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 27/0609Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 26/2330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 26/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (28 Jan, 30 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jan 080
Predicted   28 Jan-30 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        27 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan  019/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  012/015-009/010-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20