Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/0547Z from Region 2273 (S03W12). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 530 km/s at 27/1633Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/0526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 158
Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 27 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 008/010-011/012-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan