Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/0626Z from Region 2957 (S13E57). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 27/2031Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 27/0638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 811 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 097
Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 099/102/105
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 011/015-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/25