Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 20201

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1800Z from Region 2804 (N21W74). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and expected to be very low on day three (02 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 26/2206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 079
Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 080/078/074
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 006/005-010/012-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/60