Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 399 km/s at 26/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 730 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 082
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 081/080/081
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  010/012-017/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/60/60