Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 27/0555Z from Region 2506 (S06E08). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 27/0455Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/0856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Feb, 29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 090
Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 090/090/100
90 Day Mean 27 Feb 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/35
Major-severe storm 15/15/40