Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 December 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
December 27, 2014
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 December 2014

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0216Z from Region 2249 (S10W61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Dec).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 561 km/s at 26/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).

 

III.  Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec

Class M    25/25/20

Class X    05/05/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           27 Dec 134

Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 135/135/135

90 Day Mean        27 Dec 157

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  015/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec  009/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  008/010-007/010-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/25/25

 

SpaceRef staff editor.