Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0216Z from Region 2249 (S10W61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 561 km/s at 26/2103Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M 25/25/20
Class X 05/05/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 134
Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 27 Dec 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 008/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec