Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 27/0853Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 27/1048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 Aug, 30 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (29 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 066
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/15/25