Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 August 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
August 27, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 27/1730Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1627Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 39767 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 070
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  034/070
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  019/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  008/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/25

SpaceRef staff editor.