Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 27/0130Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2334 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (29 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 084
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 006/005-014/025-018/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/30/20