Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/2325Z from Region 2146 (N07W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (30 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
368 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/0848Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/0819Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (30 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 40/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 123
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 018/025-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/15
Minor Storm 30/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/10