Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 27/2009Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at27/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 069
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 007/008-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20