Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 27/0738Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0654Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 067
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  009/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25