Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 27/0738Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0654Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 067
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 009/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25