Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 27/1304Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4841 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 069
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10