Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Apr,
29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at
26/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2920 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 118
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 006/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/30/30