Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 26/2011Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 26/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 087
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 012/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/012-026/040-028/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/50/50