Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 26/1441Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0840Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 069
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 006/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20