Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 26, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1029Z from Region 2437 (S21W33). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 562 km/s at 25/2248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0152Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 106
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 006/005-007/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/30

 

SpaceRef staff editor.