Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 25/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/0226Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 069
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15