Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 881 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25245 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 081
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 082/082/080
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 024/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 009/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10