Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at 26/0736Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 418 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (29 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 104
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 007/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/10