Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to

26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at

26/0617Z from Region 2217 (S20E29). There are currently 8 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27

Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at

26/0033Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1727Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/1034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 872 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels

on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Nov 171

Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 165/160/160

90 Day Mean        26 Nov 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor Storm           25/15/15

Major-severe storm    20/10/10