Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 May 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 341 km/s at 26/0612Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 May).

III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 070
Predicted 27 May-29 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/20