Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 26/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 May), quiet to active levels on day two (28 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 068
Predicted 27 May-29 May 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 26 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/30/35
Major-severe storm 10/25/40