Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at 26/1731Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 26/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1613Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 095
Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/090/095
90 Day Mean 26 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
