Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1538Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 25/2224Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 253 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (29 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 119
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 119/115/115
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 014/018-010/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/15
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 65/35/20