Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/1143Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Mar, 28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 069
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 009/012-015/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/55/40