Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 26/1143Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Mar, 28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 069
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  009/012-015/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/55/40