Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to

26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at

26/0021Z from Region 2305 (S08E05). There are currently 7 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,

29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,

as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at

26/0135Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1135Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/2007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3959 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Mar) and active to minor

storm levels on days two and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Mar 136

Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 135/135/135

90 Day Mean        26 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  010/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  011/015-017/025-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/40/40

Minor Storm           05/25/25

Major-severe storm    01/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    35/60/60