Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1102Z from Region 2014 (S13W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
554 km/s at 26/0049Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/1121Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0055Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29
Mar).

III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 153
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05