Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 March 2013

By SpaceRef Editor
March 26, 2013
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar,
28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at
26/0110Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/0043Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1461 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three
(29 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 092
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 007/005-015/010-015/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 01/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 10/30/20
Major-severe storm 05/60/20

SpaceRef staff editor.