Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0812Z from Region 3040 (S14E02). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 km/s at 26/1230Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 102
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 013/015-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/30