Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 25/2257Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 082
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 082/083/084
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10