Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 26/0320Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 068
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 009/008-009/008-007/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/15