Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 26/1809Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0600Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 068
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/10