Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 26/2047Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 26/0940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2438 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 071
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  014/020-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/50