Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 26/1310Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 074
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 075/075/077
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/20