Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 26/1531Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 26/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1442Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3009 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 077
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 077/080/080
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05