Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0606Z from Region 2371 (N13W64). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 26/0935Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0729Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 26/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2395 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (27 Jun), active to major storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 60/60/30
Class X 20/20/10
Proton 95/50/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 101
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 019/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 024/045-035/060-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
