Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0918Z from Region 2096 (N09E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jun,
28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at
26/0735Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1157Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1157Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jun, 29
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 100
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/008-012/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10