Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0017Z from Region 1776 (N11, L = 253). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
25/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17677 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28
Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 107
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 011/015-014/017-008/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/15
Minor Storm 10/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/20