Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 26/0334Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 260 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 071
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 027/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20